Monday, December 2, 2013

Delhi Elections 2013

The present elections in Delhi have by far received the maximum amount of publicity in the main stream media and the social media. However, Delhi as a state is nothing compared to other full fledged states such as Gujarat, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan etc. Delhi does not have agricultural issues, mining issues, highway issues, maritime issues and many such problems which other states face every now and then.

Well focusing on the elections in Delhi, there are 4 main contenders in the elections. They are Congress, BJP, AAP and BSP. Congress and BJP are arch rivals in Delhi and nothing more is required to describe about them. AAP is the first time contenders and has worked hard to achieved the status. Although, social media has barely covered BSP, it has significant impact in these elections as they captured 15% of votes in the previous assembly elections which resulted in 2 winning seats. As per different media surveys we see either Congress, BJP or AAP to achieve majority in Delhi elections.

Let me present my assessment of this elections. According to me there can be 4 scenarios. They are as follows
a) Congress wins with majority
b) BJP wins with majority
c) AAP wins with majority
d) There is a hung assembly.

a) If Congress wins this elections with majority, then the entire blame will be made on AAP as they ate votes which would have gone to BJP. This situation will be a disaster for AAP and the country as Congress will continue their corruption for another 5 years.

b) If BJP wins with majority, then people of Delhi will put high expectations on BJP in the next 5 years. They will be blamed for every single failure. AAP will protest for BJP's inaction which will inadvertently keep BJP in check.

c) If AAP wins, well this seems to me a distant dream as AAP won't get majority according to me. If at all they get majority, then it will give them an opportunity to actually show what they are capable of. It will be a great experiment for Indian Democracy. Congress will then blow air into their bubble and will try to create an air in the country as they can be a vote-cutter in the general elections of 2014.

d) If there is a hung assembly, we can easily count on BSP supporting Congress. If this number leads to a majority, then we can expect BSP+Congress coalition. The major scenario which is highly probable is the case where AAP gets significant seats to be in a decisive position for forming govt. This will be very interesting case. The moment of truth lies here. I can think of 3 further chances in this case
I) AAP remains alone without supporting Congress+BSP or BJP. This will be difficult for AAP to digest. But if they do this, they will earn respect of the people and keep their word of non-alignment.
II) AAP supports BJP – This is impossible as Kejriwal claims to be secular.
III) AAP supports Congress+BJP – This has very high probability of happening. If it happens, then AAP will be fully exposed as a face of Congress to defeat BJP. All the claims of AAP members of being clean will be washed for ever.

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