Monday, December 2, 2013

Delhi Elections 2013

The present elections in Delhi have by far received the maximum amount of publicity in the main stream media and the social media. However, Delhi as a state is nothing compared to other full fledged states such as Gujarat, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan etc. Delhi does not have agricultural issues, mining issues, highway issues, maritime issues and many such problems which other states face every now and then.

Well focusing on the elections in Delhi, there are 4 main contenders in the elections. They are Congress, BJP, AAP and BSP. Congress and BJP are arch rivals in Delhi and nothing more is required to describe about them. AAP is the first time contenders and has worked hard to achieved the status. Although, social media has barely covered BSP, it has significant impact in these elections as they captured 15% of votes in the previous assembly elections which resulted in 2 winning seats. As per different media surveys we see either Congress, BJP or AAP to achieve majority in Delhi elections.

Let me present my assessment of this elections. According to me there can be 4 scenarios. They are as follows
a) Congress wins with majority
b) BJP wins with majority
c) AAP wins with majority
d) There is a hung assembly.

a) If Congress wins this elections with majority, then the entire blame will be made on AAP as they ate votes which would have gone to BJP. This situation will be a disaster for AAP and the country as Congress will continue their corruption for another 5 years.

b) If BJP wins with majority, then people of Delhi will put high expectations on BJP in the next 5 years. They will be blamed for every single failure. AAP will protest for BJP's inaction which will inadvertently keep BJP in check.

c) If AAP wins, well this seems to me a distant dream as AAP won't get majority according to me. If at all they get majority, then it will give them an opportunity to actually show what they are capable of. It will be a great experiment for Indian Democracy. Congress will then blow air into their bubble and will try to create an air in the country as they can be a vote-cutter in the general elections of 2014.

d) If there is a hung assembly, we can easily count on BSP supporting Congress. If this number leads to a majority, then we can expect BSP+Congress coalition. The major scenario which is highly probable is the case where AAP gets significant seats to be in a decisive position for forming govt. This will be very interesting case. The moment of truth lies here. I can think of 3 further chances in this case
I) AAP remains alone without supporting Congress+BSP or BJP. This will be difficult for AAP to digest. But if they do this, they will earn respect of the people and keep their word of non-alignment.
II) AAP supports BJP – This is impossible as Kejriwal claims to be secular.
III) AAP supports Congress+BJP – This has very high probability of happening. If it happens, then AAP will be fully exposed as a face of Congress to defeat BJP. All the claims of AAP members of being clean will be washed for ever.

Sunday, October 20, 2013

Gold Hunt in Unnao, India

This blog is written in the light of recent gold hunt event in Unnao, India. I am putting forward the opinion of Indian Media and Outside world on this event in form of two flowcharts.

Through the similarity between the two flowcharts, I want to convey that the Indian media does not represents "Indian" point of view. The main stream media is well exposed by So I won't go into further details here.

Imagine for a moment if really the gold is found in that location. Then what ? As a self esteemed Indian, should we go with the solutions of corrupt media and bogus outsider's ? We really need to think in that direction.

a) Set up research committee(s) to create a database of all such events happened in the past. The task of this committee should be to find the historicity of these events.
b) The committee should establish the percentage of cases that resulted in success and percentage of cases that resulted in failure.
c) If there are cases which shows a clear incidence of meta-physics involved, then it will form the basis for further research in this area of meta-physics.

There can be only two possible result or outcome of this research work.
a) There exists such phenomenon where humans can achieve such state of mind where they can predict events beyond the realms of present scientific achievements.
b) There is no such phenomenon and research in this field is futile.

Next we should ask certain questions to ourselves.
a) If these incidences are common in India, then why are we not doing any serious research in this direction ?
b) Shouldn't we follow so called "scientific" approach to solve this (beyond the realms of science) dream vs reality mystery ?
c) If these phenomenon indeed occur, should we know the mechanism behind this approach ?

Lets imagine the outcome of research turns out to be positive. What are the possible scenarios
a) It will be the next giant leap in the realm of present science.
b) It will be a serious blow to present established faiths such as Christianity, Islam, Judaism which do not believe in higher state of human mind can be achieved by normal people. This research can be a death knell to the existing Abrahamic faiths.

Saturday, April 28, 2012

Things which are seriously flawed in India

In this blog I am compiling a list of things which are seriously flawed and which needs serious consideration from intellectuals to rectify them. This blog will be in beta phase for a long time because of various edits that will appear time and again. Let me start with my list.

1. The subject of History is almost unanimously loathed in school by students all over India and in whatever language it is. 
Reason - The history which we read contains mostly war description. It is very detailed regarding dates of war and the change of dynasties. It is presented such that dynasties in India had always been at war. Also the description is so subtle that Indians were always defeated by whichever aggressor that came to India. Description for Hindu rulers is suppressed to 1 paragraph whereas Muslim aggressors are glorified across various chapters. Definitely this subtle mind-game to destroy the psyche of students at young age don't satisfy their instincts. There is no attempt made to connect the students with their past. With the removal of all great achievements by the Indian ancestry from the History books, it is the most loathed subject in the whole curriculum.

2. Justice in India is slow beyond imagination. 
Reason - Indian Penal Code (IPC, 1861), Criminal Procedure Code (CrPC, 1973), Indian Evidence Act (1871) are archaic laws designed by Britishers so that the justice is always delayed.

3. People fear Police more than a dacoit.
Reason - Thanks to the Indian Police Act of 1861 which gives them unprecedented power to terrorise people.

4. Water shortage where ever you go.
Reason - For any civilization to grow and prosper, a regular supply of water is necessary. All ancient civilization around the world propered near river beds. India being a continued civilization had well designed cities with proper supply of water. But, now water scarcity is affecting almost every city. Why this has happened. Recently, I came to know that the water management was done efficiently till the advent of British rule in India. Britishers wanted to make Indians so weak that they won't be able to protest against them ever again. To achieve this goal, they took innumberable steps. One of them was water management. Earlier each village had their own water management system. Under this system a group of people took necessary care of community ponds, and small dykes. They made regular checks to ensure that water level is maintained in the ponds during dry spells. These people belonged to specific caste and their profession was well guarded by the rules of the inter-caste relationships. Britishers systematically attacked these castes and they took the administration of water under a centralized head called Public Works Division (PWD). PWDs were created at the level of district, with a single office managing over thousands of villages. Britishers knew very well that this department would not be able to manage the water supply in all the villages. But their ulterior goals were fulfilled. PWD took the authority of managing ponds and river streams from local people in the villages. Soon, the ponds either dried up and villagers started depending on rain as the major source of water supply.

5. Garbage on the streets

Monday, November 28, 2011

Baba Ramdev - A threat to whom ?

After a near death blow to the peaceful protest in 04 June'11, Baba Ramdev has again resurfaced with Bharat Swabhiman movement - 2. The main agenda of this movement is again Black Money. Baba has hardened his stand against the biggest agencies of the world. Let me summarise these agencies. They are as follows :-

UNO - United Nations Organisation, New York City
WHO - Geneva, Switzerland
WTO - Geneva, Switzerland
IMF - Washington, DC, US
WB - Washington, DC, US

Clearly black money affects IMF and WB. But Baba Ramdev is a yog guru with vast statistics of curing innumerable diseases with his yoga. It is in direct conflict with the politics of WHO. Baba also asks for fixing the issues with various malpractices in small scale industries in industries. Again, there is a direct conflict with an organisation named WTO. If we combine all these organizations, then at the apex comes UNO.

Sunday, November 27, 2011

Do we need FDI in retail sector ?

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in retail sector has currently become a hot topic for national debate since the day the proposal by the current government headed by CONgress has passed in its cabinet. According to the proposal, the government will allow 51% FDI in multi-brand retail and increase the current 51% to 100% in single brand retail. This decision by the government has created troubles in the political circles of India. Voices favoring this bill is focusing on modernization of supply chain and inflation control whereas the opposing voices are coming from the existing retail sector which foresees eminent jobless and ultimate situation of suicide. Now let us understand the whole issue in different subtopics.

Single-brand vs multi-brand retail
It is very important to understand what does each of these terminology mean. Single-brand retail means that a shop can sell a product under its brand name only. These shops are very popular in sectors such as garment, shoes, electronics, cars, etc. where a single brands products are only available. The shops can procure material from any supplier, but finally it can be sold under one brand name only. In India, primary single-brand shops are Pantaloon, Titan, Tata, etc. On the contrary, multi-brand retails is clear by its name. These shops can sell anything right from a single needle to a car. They can have any number of brands, and any kind of product. A major section of these shops are fast-moving consumer good such as vegetables, cosmetics, grocery, stationary, etc. However, there is no limit to these shops. A common grocery shop is an example of multi-brand retail. The shop area can range from a 4x4 feet to a few million sq feet.

FDI in multi-brand retail – What it means ?
The existing retail sector in India is largely considered as an unorganized system because it is operated by millions of small grocery shop owners for whom the government does not provide any direct remuneration and who work on their own. Accordingly, this sector is largely presumed to be inefficient leading to poor link in the supply chain of any product right from the field to the customer. The main argument by the proponents of FDI in retail is that a lot of food product and other goods are wasted due to inefficiencies in lack of handling of good by the retailers and poor coordination between the producer and the sellers. On the other hand, the same system if controlled by big retailers would handle the whole supply chain properly with their huge supporting infrastructure. They can directly procure the produce from farmers, transport them to cold-storage and then bring in to retail in their shops. Here comes the role of lobbyists from Wal-mart, Carrefour, Tesco, Metro, and many more who are pressing hard to open the retail sector in India. Retail business in India is about 400 billion $ per year.

Voices from the Government
There is a strong support from within the government to open FDI in retail. Their main argument is based on the following presumptions which is necessary to be addressed.
a) Retail handled by many small shopkeepers is inefficient because of lack of coordination between producers and buyers. The supply and demand is not managed according to the cutting edge IT-infrastructure and inventory assessment tools used by big corporate giants like Walmart and co.
b) The supply chain from the producer to consumers involves a wastage of 30% of perishable goods because necessary infrastructure such as cold-storage facilities, good connectivity roads, procurement from farmers at market rates are either not available or not properly handled.
c) Big players like Walmart have very efficient management skills which involves fast movement of goods from fields to showrooms thus minimize overall loss due to stagnant inventory. They also provide multi-brand products which increases the options for the consumers.
d) Big players would introduce competitive atmosphere and would create conducive atmosphere for retail business. It will increase the number of employment opportunities in showrooms, cold-storage facilities, procurement facilities, etc. which is estimated to be about 10 million in the next 5-10 years.
e) Inflation would be controlled because the wastage in food supply chain would reduce and it will increase in the overall supply of goods in the market and hence will bring down the prices.

In total, the picture presented by the government is very rosy. It only presents the beauty of the moon on a new moon day. I totally agree that the moon is crescent and beautiful, but I cannot forget that 99% of the moon is dark and it does not provide me any light. In the same proportion, the government's propaganda is a myth and it is in total contrast with the reality.

Arguments that entirely demolish the need for FDI in retail
a) The main presumption that the current retail sector is inefficient by itself is ill fetched. Just labeling the sector as inefficient without justification is an insult to an industry which directly employs 4 crore (40 million) people. This translate to food security of 20 crore (200 million) people. What contributes to the inefficiencies is not the people but the policies of the government who regulate the sector with more than 20 indirect taxes which leaves no room for innovation or upgradation.
b) Who is responsible for waste in food grains ? Should Indian farmer be blamed for producing more than he can sell ? But nobody will take into account that it is the problem of infrastructure. Provision of roads, cold-storage facilities etc. is the responsibility of the government. But the government never gave priority to the development of infrastructure.
c) Walmart is efficient because of economy of gigantic scale and use of advanced Information-Technology in handling goods from producer to buyers. Comparison of Walmart with a local grocery store is like comparing an elephant with a mouse. This comparison is totally flawed.
d) Walmart has a glorious history of destroying the local grocery retail sector by upto 50% within 10 years of its introduction in that area. If it generates an employment of 1 crore in 10 years, then it will push 2 crore people out of business. This translates to about 10 crore people pushed below poverty line. It doesn't seem to be a profitable deal.
e) Inflation in India is not because of unavailability of essential good. Inflation is because of hoarding of goods. Who prevents these big shopping mall owners not to hoard the goods and create a situation of artificial inflation ?

Some things about FDI which are not talked about
a) Foreign retailers are restricted to purchase atleast 30 % produce from local supplies. This means that they are free to import the rest 70% of goods from the markets which are cheaper than local produce. It is very probable that the government in its red-carpet treatment might have reduced or even removed custom and excise duties on the goods imported by these foreign retailers. This move is suicide for Indian industry. I don't understand why nobody talks about it.
b) 50% employment should be done from rural sector. What about the rest 50% percent ? Can these companies hire people from abroad ? If it is so, then we should start preparing for a social time bomb. These multinational companies know very well that Indians are mentally obsessed with white skin. What if these companies hire blonde white girls from eastern european countries to boost their sale? This is not a fiction. This trend has already begun in Bollywood where all the dancers in background are white skinned blonde from eastern European countries like Ukraine, Kazakhstan etc.
c) It is very clear that FDI would directly affect the jobs of about 2 crore people in the retail sector. Is there any plan down the pipeline that would provide employment to these people in the coming 10 years ? Walmart, Carrefour, Tesco are coming in India with a plan of next 50 years in mind. But does our government even have any simple roadmap for even the next 5 years ?

Do we really need a big retail shopping mall in Indian retail sector ? Youngsters of India who are dazzled by the beauty of globalisation would say yes within no time. These youngsters belongs to a very special niche comprising of IT professionals, MBA graduates, rich city youths, tweeters and facebookers who have never been taught the real Economics of India. They think that USA is the best, US model should be adopted in India, etc. But let me sound the bell right now without going further in this matter. We need to understand that USA is not India and India is not USA. These big shopping malls are not the achievement but are a compulsion for US. This is something they are really ashamed to talk about. This is one of the biggest truths in US which is never mentioned in the media. Ask any average USite about the pain of travelling 50 KM (32 miles) to get a tablet of Anacin from their shopping mall. The message I want to convey is that in India almost everything that is necessary to live is available everywhere. But in US everything is not available everywhere. They need to be transported in large trucks from one corner of the country to another corner. Let me explain by an example. Wheat grows in almost 80 % of the total number of districts in India which is roughly spread across the whole country. Similarly, major spices grow almost every where in India. But in US, roughly 4-5 states out of 50 grows wheat. For the rest of the country, it needs to be transported on big trucks. If you happen to be on any highway in US, out of 10 trucks passing by, almost 8-9 trucks would be shipping wheat or flour or bread. Now in the end of the supply chain lies the distribution. To make it simple, they go with big shopping mall in between 3-4 towns where they dump all the necessary stuff and people from these town come in their cars to buy. Thus US has gone for a centralised system of mall. But India doesn't need this kind of centralisation. The inherent distributed system in India requires less transport and small scale mechanism of distribution reaching right till the next door kirana shops.

The distributed system of India has been attacked time and again. Britishers tried to break this system for 200 years, but they failed. Before them, Islamic dynasties tried to centralise, but they never succeeded. Now Dr. Manmohan Singh (MMS) want to break this decentralised system. History suggests that everyone has met with failure in doing so. MMS is next in line. But in short run, he would create heavy damages which might take decades to rectify.

This article is homage to Shri Rajiv Dixit who passed away on Nov 30, 2010. Most of the ideas in this article are inspired from his teachings from the following video :-

Also Read:

Relation of Inflation with the Central Governments in India

Multi-facet consequences of Black Money

Sunday, September 25, 2011

Review on Arthakranti

I have been studying the issue of Black Money for the past few months and have gained basic knowledge on its key features. In some of my previous blogs I have described what it is and how it is generated. However, I have not presented any solution to this issue.

In the past few weeks I came to know about an interesting topic known as Arthakranti. The word by itself means - "Financial Revolution". I got this topic from one of the televised meeting of Baba Ramdev where Mr. Anil Bokil presented his 5-point formula for Arthakranti and how it can change the economic dynamics of India. The presentation was very simple. It used general terms understandable by common people who do not have much knowledge of economics. I was quite impressed by the overall aspect of Arthakranti. This concept was entirely generated out of the need to counter the issue of Black Money. Being a PhD student, I thought why not to study each and every point of Arthakranti and try to interpret what it means.

The five main aspects of Arthkranti as reported in the website are :-

   1. Withdrawal of existing Taxation System completely (except customs i.e. import duties).

   2. Every Transaction routed through a bank will attract certain deduction in appropriate percentage as Transaction Tax i.e. Single point tax deducted at source. (say 2 %).
         a. This deduction is to be effected on receiving/credit accounts only.
         b. This deducted amount will be credited to different Government levels like Central, State and Local (say 0.7%, 0.6%, 0.35% respectively).
         c. Transacting Bank will also have its share in this amount as the bank has a key role to perform (say 0.35%).

   3. Withdrawal of High denomination currency (say above Rs. 50).

   4. Cash transactions will not attract any transaction tax.

   5. Government should make legal provisions to restrict cash transactions up to a certain limit (say Rs. 2000).

If I understood the proposal of Arthakranti, I would say that the entire implementation is directed towards making the money flow accountable. Any money that is accounted is white. In the current economic system of India, heavy taxation puts an immense burden on the people, thus encouraging them to adopt methods that do not attract accountability. 

In the above proposal, accountability is ensured by enforcing all the transaction through banks. The liquidity in form of cash transaction is limited by first abolishing high denomination currency notes and then limited cash transaction above Rs 2000 illegal. A transaction tax of 2% is nominal and direct way to collect money for the tax. Abolishing all the existing taxes paves the way for a direct 2 % nominal transaction tax. Thus, the above five points are like 5 fingers of the hand. The proposals of Arthakranti will have no meaning if any one of the point is either rejected or modified. They have to be implemented together. 

The changes in the financial system as suggested by Arthakranti are gigantic. It needs immense willpower and determination to take such a step. No country has ever done anything remote as suggested by Arthakranti. Till date, this discussion is highly restricted to few people who are promoting this concept. However, Baba Ramdev has taken up the suggestions of Arthakranti in his Bharat Swabhimaan Yatra 2. He is now organising huge meetings and is discussing the essential facts of Arthakranti among the common masses.

Sunday, September 11, 2011

7/9 Bombings in New Delhi – A description

It is very disheartening to see another act of terror in New Delhi where a bomb blast occurred outside the High Court on 7th September, 2011. In this blog I want to cover some technical, political and ideological issues involved with these bombing which I believe are important to understand behind these act of terror. Finally, I present my solution which is difficult but is inevitable for our survival.

Technicalities behind the blast

These blasts involved the use of explosive called PETN(Pentaerythritol tetranitrate). The previous bombings in India were based on RDX or Ammonium Nitrate. This is the first time PETN is used for terrorist activity in India. PETN is more deadlier than RDX in terms of explosive power for the same quantity used. The most scary issue with PETN explosive is that it is a plastic explosive and is not detectable by current machines used in India for finding bombs. Even the sniffer dogs are not trained for detecting this kind of explosive. These terrorist have proved that they are one step ahead which is alarming. PETN is not manufactured in India, which means it is smuggled into India via Pakistan border or Bangladesh borders. Initial claims of HuJI involvement in bombing creates an impression that the bombing was guided by terrorist groups from Bangladesh. This raises serious question on the border security forces. If a deadly chemical explosive can cross our border, then the day is not far when a nuclear bomb will be smuggled inside.

Political failure

The series of bombings one after another has exposed the level of political failure in New Delhi. The location of this blast is barely 100 meters from India Gate which is situated in the heart of the capital. Terrorists have shown their might and reach by bombing in the center of the capital city. But what our political leaders are doing ? Prime minister says – It is unfortunate. There is no voice of retaliation or hard stand against any of these attacks. Instead, the Congress government is busy in defending Afzal Guru who has already been given death sentence 7 years ago. The government has given a very clear message to all the terrorists – You can come and kill the people of India. If you are caught, we will feed you nicely in 5-star jails and will never punish you. It is beyond any doubts that these added measures of the government directly boost the confidence of terrorists.

Ideology of Terrorism

It is very important to understand the motives behind these attacks. It is beyond any doubt that these are the outcome of “Islamic Terror”. The people behind these activities have a very clear agenda. They want to establish a Pan-Islamic state where the rule of Islam exist. They don't believe in the concept of modern nation state. For them, there is no India, no Pakistan or no Afghanistan. The critics who says that root of terrorism lies in poverty and illiteracy is a total bullshit. Most head of terrorist organisations are engineers, doctors, scientists, MBA degree holders. Bin Laden was a Saudi billionaire with rich educational background. These terrorist are governed by very very simple and direct philosophy, i.e. , establish the rule of Islam by any method possible. Use of force is not an issue for them. It is an ideological war. For people like us, terrorism is wrong, but for them it is their ultimate aim of life. It is impossible to make any argument with them as they don't fear killing others for their political goals.

Solution to terrorism

These terrorists are proclaiming their superiority on our sovereignty. Our government has boosted their confidence in dastardly attacks by going soft on national enemies such as Afzal Guru and Ajmal Kasab. In principle, terrorism is a mind game. These terrorists are attacking our psyche. They want to instil an element of fear in our mind. In this scenario, we can counter them by defeating them in their own game. Fear should be balanced with fear. If they kill one of us, then we need to retaliate. We need to give capital punishment to all the terrorists eating delicious food in our jails. We need to set examples before them. They are not above the laws of nature. Whatever be the ideology of these terrorists, survival instinct always prevail. They need to know that their acts would definitely lead them to shameful death. Hence, direct capital punishment is the only solution.

For a more detailed analysis on Delhi bombing, kindly watch the video from CHAUTHI DUNIYA:-

Also read :-
Relation of Inflation with the Central Governments in India

About Jan Lokpal Movement

About Black Money and Corruption